Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record as climate talks begin

The world is on course for its hottest year on record as the planet is hit with warming from climate change and El Niño, scientists have told BBC News. The warning comes as world leaders and negotiators gather in Turkey on Monday for the opening of COP31, the latest UN climate summit. Berkeley Earth, the independent US research group behind the forecast, said that even with two months of the year left it is 95% confident that 2026 will surpass the previous record set in 2024.

The impact of rising heat has been felt acutely in recent months by countries attending COP, with extensive wildfires across Europe and the sudden glacier collapse in Nepal which killed more than 1,000 people. "We have had a run of record warm years," said Dr Robert Rohde, of Berkeley Earth. "That is what we expect as global warming progresses… glaciers collapsing, record-breaking heatwaves and droughts." But Rohde warned this was just the start.

"There is potential for much larger and much more dramatic changes down the line," he said.