Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows

Global carbon emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, but not because of major progress on climate action. Instead, it's high energy prices following the US attack on Iran that's driving the trend. Emissions from oil, gas and coal are the main drivers of climate change .

While over the past decade, these emissions have risen by 0.9% per year, they are expected to drop by 0.4% in 2026. "It's downwards, which sounds good, but this is largely driven by the war in Iran, what's happened in the Strait of Hormuz," said the study's co-author Glen Peters, a scientist at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway. The study published by international research group the Global Carbon Project found that oil emissions dropped by 1.9% in 2026, while natural gas fell by 0.3%.

Coal emissions however continued to rise, by around 0.6%. A structural change would mean that emissions would slowly rise to a peak and then slowly decline afterwards, indicating a long term trend. That's not what happened though, Peters said.