Global temperatures are set to exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2026, likely the second-warmest year on record

Climate scientists say the world is set to breach the critical 1.5-degree Celsius threshold in 2026. This year is also on track to become the second-warmest on record. Global temperatures will almost certainly average more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels in 2026, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said Friday.

The Paris treaty was aimed at preventing global temperatures from rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius in the long term. The 2015 deal was seen as a major step forward in tackling climate change. Most of the world's nations agreed to hold global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and "pursue efforts" to keep it below 1.5 degrees .

Copernicus estimates that 2026 will most likely be the second-warmest year after 2024 since records began. However, there is a 20% chance that it could surpass 2024 levels. October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average global surface temperature of 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial levels for the month.