Lula’s victory is a stress test for the Global South

“It looked like another rigged election,” Donald Trump said after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential vote. His administration granted United States visas to Lula’s defeated rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, and his family as they fled to Miami, where Bolsonaro declared himself Brazil’s rightful leader. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, warmly congratulated Lula and hailed China-Brazil relations as “a model of solidarity and cooperation among Global South countries”.

China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, and Lula has strengthened ties with Beijing and other BRICS countries while resisting Washington’s efforts to bring Latin America more firmly into its orbit. Lula’s re-election may look like a victory for China over the US. But it is less a triumph for Beijing than a stress test for the Global South.

Trump still has considerable power to punish Brazil for pursuing an independent course. How far he is prepared to go is the immediate question.